NFL Market Movers: Should Joe Burrow Collectors Be Worried?

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The NFL season finally kicked off this past weekend, and while several sports card hobby stars put up huge numbers in big wins, others had disastrous outings in Week 1.

From Joe Burrowโ€˜s major letdown to Josh Allenโ€˜s dominate Thursday win, hereโ€™s a look at key risers and decliners from the NFLโ€™s opening games.

Cards listed below are PSA 10s with a minimum of 10 sales over the last 30 days.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE RISERS

1. Gardner Minshew II 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 75%

2. Cam Newton 2011 Topps Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 75%

3. Saquon Barkley 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 70%

4. Patrick Mahomes 2020 Mosaic Green PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 67%

5. DeAndre Hopkins 2013 Prizm Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 66%

BARKLEY RETURNS: New York Giants star RB Saquon Barkley has been a hobby favorite due to his dynamic play in the running game, but his inability to stay healthy has been more than problematic for his collectors over the past two seasons. He missed almost all of 2020, and just didnโ€™t look right in 2021. This season, collectors are hoping he turns the corner and is able to remain healthy.

While Barkleyโ€™s 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 has been the big riser in terms of price percentage, itโ€™s worth noting that his 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 and 2018 Prizm Base PSA 10 are going up, too. Any of those cards could be a good buy if he remains on the field in 2022.

PRICE GROWTH PERCENTAGE DECLINERS

1. Drew Lock 2019 Select Concourse PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ 71%

2. Zach Wilson 2021 Mosaic Reactive Orange PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ 67%

3. Drew Lock 2019 Prizm Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ 60%

4. Tua Tagovailoa 2020 Optic Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ 60%

5. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ 53%

LOCK FALLS: As expected, Drew Lockโ€™s hobby value has tanked since losing the Seattle Seahawks starting QB job to Geno Smith. Lockโ€™s hobby stock has always been on uneven ground because, well, he hasnโ€™t been very good. But starting QBs almost always have decent upside for prospectors, so his market has managed to stick around.

Overall, Lockโ€™s PSA 10s tracked by Market Movers are down 38% collectively over the last 30 days, and itโ€™s especially troubling for Lock collectors that signature rookies like that 2019 Select Concourse and 2019 Prizm Base have accounted for the bulk of the dip.

DOLLAR GROWTH RISERS

1. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ $244

2. Patrick Mahomes 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ $241

3. Josh Allen 2018 Optic Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ $105

4. Josh Allen 2018 Select Concourse PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ $92

5. Jaโ€™Marr Chase 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ $63

DOLLAR GROWTH DECLINERS

1. Joe Burrow 2020 Optic Holo PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ $248

2. Barry Sanders 1989 Score Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ $198

3. Dak Prescott 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ $159

4. Trey Lance 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ $146

5. Joe Burrow 2020 Select Premier Level Silver PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“‰ $139

TIME TO WORRY? Itโ€™s fair to feel a little uneasy about Joe Burrowโ€™s market after seeing several of his rookies dipping amid a five-turnover Week 1. Itโ€™s probably not time to panic, though, as several of his key rookies are still showing positive signs in terms of sales volume or minimal dip in price percentage.

Below we can see that his 2020 Optic Base PSA 10, 2020 Prizm Base PSA 10 and 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 are all down slightly โ€” the Optic is down the most at 21% over the last 30 days โ€” but itโ€™s hard to look at this chart and feel especially alarmed.

SALES VOLUME LEADERS

1. Josh Allen 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 169 sales

2. Justin Herbert 2020 Donruss Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 126 sales

3. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 123 sales

4. Justin Herbert 2020 Mosaic NFL Debut PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 122 sales

5. Lamar Jackson 2018 Donruss Base PSA 10 ๐Ÿ“ˆ 107 sales

SALES KING: While stars like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are topping the Market Movers charts in terms of dollar and price growth, Justin Herbert remains king of transactions. Heโ€™s an early favorite for MVP and is expected by many to be among the league leaders in passing yards and touchdowns, so you canโ€™t really blame the hobby for loading up on key rookies before the season ramps up.

The sales volume here isnโ€™t surprising, but whatโ€™s actually impressive is how Herbertโ€™s Donruss Base and Mosaic Base have maintained positive price growth despite the volume โ€” cards with this many sales tend to hold close to even or decline in price over this period of time.

POPULAR SEALED WAX (HOBBY BOXES WITH MIN. 10 SALES OVER LAST 30 DAYS)

1. 2022 Legacy Football ๐Ÿ“ˆ 7%

2. 2021 Optic Football ๐Ÿ“ˆ 15%

3. 2022 Chronicles Draft Picks Football ๐Ÿ“ˆ 2%

4. 2021 One Football ๐Ÿ“‰ 10%

5. 2021 Chronicles Football ๐Ÿ“‰ 10%

MARKET PULSE INDEXES OVER LAST 30 DAYS

Football 2018-2020: ๐Ÿ“‰ 1.9%

Football 2010-2017: ๐Ÿ“‰ 0.7%

Football 2000-2009: ๐Ÿ“‰ 2%

Football 1990-1999: ๐Ÿ“‰ 2.9%

Football 1980-1989: ๐Ÿ“ˆ 1.3%

Football 1979 & Older: ๐Ÿ“‰ 1.2%

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