Murders at Karlov Manor may be days away from release, but MTG’s relentless spoiler season hasn’t stopped. Picking up the slack, the latest round of Secret Lair drops are steadily being revealed to steal the spotlight. As usual, these upcoming reprints are all adorned with absolutely fantastic art that has plenty of MTG players excited.
Unfortunately, while the art is unsurprisingly stellar, the latest Secret Lair drops are missing one key detail. From what we’ve seen so far, the 2024 Secret Lair Winter Superdrop is surprisingly lacking in value. With the majority of drops not even breaking even, it appears the next Superdrop could even be the worst yet.
Gorgeous Yet Dubious Reprints
If you enjoyed the Relentless Rats promo from MagicCon: Barcelona, the latest Secret Lair Drop might just be for you. Also created by Graham Yarrington, these cards feature a wonderfully stylistic and colorful pop art aesthetic. For many players, this gorgeous art will be more than enough to sell the Prismatic Nightmares Secret Lair drop.
As much as the art is absolutely gorgeous, that’s not the only important detail for Secret Lair drops. Whether players are fueling the secondary market or just want to their their money’s worth, value is always important. From this perspective, sadly Prismatic Nightmares is a bit of a letdown.
In total, the reprints within this Secret Lair Drop will only set you back about $17 on the secondary MTG markets. Considering the expected $30 price tag, this raw value is hardly ideal for many players. To make matters worse, the expensive cards in this Secret Lair aren’t even popular, they’re just to get ahold of.
Clocking in at around $7.50, the most exciting reprint in this Secret Lair drop is Prince of Thralls. Following closely behind, Rain of Filth typically sells for $5, which is already below the desired $6 average. Below this Arcane Denial sells for just $3, and Simian Spirit Guide is rarely more than a dollar.
Technically, since this Secret Lair drop is providing new supply, the prices of the in-demand cards may drop. That being said since Secret Lair drops are now limited-run sales, their effectiveness as traditional MTG reprints may be lacking. Ultimately, we’re just going to have to see how things pan out once this Secret Lair actually releases.
Fantastic Foil Value?
While the non-foil value of this Secret Lair drop leaves much to be desired, fans of foils are in luck. Not only does Prismatic Nightmares offer fantastic foil value, but there’s even a first foil printing too! Found on Rain of Filth, there’s a good chance foil copies of this card could be rather expensive.
As much as first foil printings are exciting, ultimately, they are somewhat risky and unproven. Thankfully, the same isn’t true for Simian Spirit Guide and Arcane Denial. Primarily played in Legacy and Commander respectively, both these cards see beloved staples with demand for fancy foil variants. This much is clear from the foil prices which start at $11 for Simian Spirit Guide and $5.50 for Arcane Denial.
Above these respectively priced foils Prince of Thralls is once again this Secret Lair’s heavy hitter. Selling for $31 as a foil, this card almost pays for the entire drop itself! Unfortunately, however, the new Secret Lair variant may not match this price, even with its good looks. Ultimately, Prince of Thralls is not a popular card in any format, so this high price is likely just a supply issue.
While there are a few nice foils on offer, the value of this Secret Lair drop is dubious at best. At the end of the day, however, the real determiner of long-term value will be print volume. Should the foil editions of this Secret Lair be in low supply, we may see prices reach new highs. Alternatively, should past precedent dictate foil variants are the most popular, these high prices could plummet.
Into the Unknown
Since we’ve not seen limited-run Secret Lair drops before, we’re just going to have to wait and see what happens. Thankfully, we won’t be stuck waiting for much longer as the 2024 Winter Superdrop launches next Monday. On the 5th of February, each limited-run sale will go live and there’s no telling how long they will last.
When announcing the change to their established distribution order, Wizards stated they’re taking past precedent into account. Due to this, in theory, each Secret Lair shouldn’t sell out until the sale is almost over. In reality, however, it’s highly likely that this Superdrop will be plagued by scalpers.
At the end of the day, we don’t know what’s going to happen yet. Ultimately, we’re just going to have to wait and see what happens once Monday rolls around.